Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
